Pressure points - the global main steam isolation valve market20 August 2014
GlobalData delivers a critical analysis of the global main steam isolation valve market in nuclear power generation.
At present, there are 32 countries globally that include nuclear power in their energy mix. The major countries that use nuclear reactors for power generation are Bulgaria, Canada, China, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the UK, Ukraine and the US. There are also many other countries planning to include nuclear power in their energy portfolio. The emerging nuclear countries with advanced nuclear development plans are Turkey, the UAE and Vietnam.
Global nuclear installed capacity increased from 349GW in 2000 to 371GW in 2013, at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 0.5%. Nuclear power is expected to witness substantial global growth in the forecast period, with installed capacity forecast to increase to 531GW by 2025, equating to an AAGR of 2.8% between 2013 and 2025.
Nuclear power generation decreased from 2,451TWh in 2000 to 2,385TWh in 2013, at a negative AAGR of 0.2%, primarily due to the reduction in nuclear power generation in Japan after the Fukushima disaster. However, it is expected to increase to 3,777TWh by 2025, marking an AAGR of 3.7% between 2013 and 2025.
See Figure 1, for the growth in nuclear installed capacity and generation between 2000 and 2025.
India and China to witness the largest demand for main steam isolation valves between 2014 and 2025
Globally, India is expected to have the largest main steam isolation valve (MSIV) market during the 2014-25 forecast period. In the global nuclear power market, India has one of the most extensive development plans, including the construction of more than 35 nuclear reactors. China is expected to be the second-largest market for nuclear MSIVs, followed by South Korea, Russia, the US, Vietnam, the UK, France and Ukraine.
See Figure 2 for the estimated global demand for MSIVs between 2014 and 2025.
MSIV market overview, China
In China, nuclear power currently plays a minor role, accounting for a share of just 1.9% of energy generation. However, the country has extensive nuclear development plans, aimed at increasing its nuclear installed capacity to around 58GW by 2020, and 400GW by 2050. It also plans to become self-sufficient in terms of reactor design and fuel cycles, in order to support its nuclear development plans.
Thermal energy makes the largest contribution to energy generation in China, accounting for around 80.7% of the total. It is followed by hydropower, which contributes around 14.4%, while wind, nuclear and biomass contribute 2.1%, 1.9% and 0.7% respectively. Solar PV, biogas, geothermal and solar thermal also contribute to energy generation.
Nuclear installed capacity and generation in China registered a slight increase between 2000 and 2012. Since China is looking to extensively develop nuclear power, installed capacity and generation are expected to increase drastically between 2013 and 2025.
Between 2000 and 2013, China's nuclear installed capacity increased from 2.2GW to 13.9GW, at an AAGR of 17%. It is expected to reach 61.4GW by 2025, increasing at an AAGR of 13.9% between 2013 and 2025.
Nuclear power generation in China increased from 16.7TWh in 2000 to 107.03TWh in 2013, at an AAGR of 16.6%, and is forecast to reach 500.3TWh in 2025, at an AAGR of 15%.
Increasing power demand, leading to power supply shortages, has compelled China to seek alternate sources of power generation. Nuclear energy has the capability to supply substantial amounts of power without adverse impact on the environment, which makes it a viable option for future power generation.
Power consumption in China increased from 1,273TWh in 2000 to 4,467TWh in 2012 at a CAGR of 11.0%. It is expected to increase from 4,651TWh in 2013 to 7,267TWh in 2025, at a CAGR of 6.3%. Increasing demand from industrial operations and households are among the factors contributing to power shortages. Additionally, climatic factors such as droughts and heat waves contribute to widespread power shortages in the Hunan, Fujian, and Qinghai provinces, where the majority of hydropower plants operate.
China, one of the world's largest producers of greenhouse gases, intends to have cut its carbon emissions by around 45% by 2020. To achieve this, it will need to take drastic measures in its major carbon-emitting sectors. The production of power from fossil fuels will need to be substantially reduced, and power generation from renewable and nuclear energy sources will need to be increased accordingly.
The need to cut carbon emissions is a key factor driving the development of nuclear power in China. Due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, the majority of the country's future power demand will be supported by NPPs, which will require the large-scale development of the nuclear industry.
Between 2006 and 2013, the market demand for MSIVs in China is estimated to have been 84 units, of which new installations accounted for 67, while replacements generated demand for 17. The demand peaked in 2012, entirely due to the high number of new installations in that year. During the forecast period between 2014 and 2025, a total demand of 80 MSIVs is expected, of which 56 will be new installations, and the remaining 24 will be replacements. Demand will be highest in 2016 during the forecast period.
See Figure 3 for the market demand for MSIVs in China between 2006 and 2025.
MSIV market overview, India
In India, nuclear power currently plays a modest role, accounting for a share of around 3.4% of electricity generation. However, extensive plans have been formulated for the development of nuclear power, which will enable nuclear energy to play a vital role in the country's future power industry. India is also keen to exploit its thorium reserves, in order to support its nuclear power development plan. There are currently 19 nuclear reactors operating in India.
Thermal energy plays a critical role in power generation in India, as it contributes around 80% of the country's total. Coal, oil and gas are all used in India. Hydropower energy is the second largest source of electricity, accounting for a share of around 12%. Wind, nuclear, biomass, biogas, solar PV and solar thermal, in declining order of contribution, account for the remaining share of energy generation in India.
In India, nuclear installed capacity registered a minor increase between 2000 and 2013. However, the country has extensive plans to increase its nuclear installed capacity in the near future. Nuclear power installed capacity increased from 2.9GW in 2000 to 5.7GW in 2013, at an AAGR of 5.7%. It is forecast to increase to 36.2GW in 2025, at an AAGR of 17.1% between 2013 and 2025.
In India, nuclear power generation registered some slight variation between 2000 and 2013. The country's nuclear power generation increased from 16.9TWh in 2000 to 38.4TWh in 2013, at an AAGR of 7.6%. The growth of nuclear power generation has run in parallel with the increase in capacity. Nuclear power generation is expected to increase much more rapidly during the 2013-25 forecast period, from 38.4TWh in 2013 to 253.4TWh in 2025, at an AAGR of 17.3%.
India, which continues to refuse to adhere to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, had been largely excluded from nuclear trading by other countries. However, the mutually beneficial agreement signed between the US and India in 2008, which allows the US to commercially extend support to India in terms of nuclear technology and raw material, will boost India's prospects for nuclear development. This deal will support India's nuclear power programme and act as a basis for other similar deals to be signed with other countries in the future
Electricity demand in India has increased substantially in the past, and the country is expected to register exponential growth in demand in the near future, supporting the demand for nuclear power. In 2000, electricity consumption in India amounted to around 316.6TWh, which increased to 709.8TWh in 2012 at a CAGR of 7%. Demand for power is expected to increase further, to reach 1,348TWh in 2020, at a CAGR of 8.4%. The substantial growth in power demand has driven the country to consider nuclear power as a viable option for power generation with a low carbon footprint.
In India, coal consumption is expected to have reached 943EJ (exajoules) by 2052. The difference in demand and supply will generate the need for coal imports. Around 47% of India's electricity needs are expected to be met by coal by 2053. However, although coal is one of the main sources of power generation in the country, critical issues such as transportation bottlenecks, logistical problems, and the increasing cost of coal are hampering the growth of the coal industry. As a result of these drawbacks, India is looking to reduce its reliance upon coal, which in turn is pushing it towards other sources of power generation, such as nuclear.
See Figure 4 for the market demand for MSIVs in India during the period between 2006 and 2025.
Between 2006 and 2013, the market demand for MSIVs in India is estimated to have been 66 units, of which new installations generated a demand for 32, while replacements accounted for 34. Demand peaked in 2008, entirely due to the replacement of 14 units. During the forecast period between 2014 and 2025, a total demand of 168 MSIVs is expected, of which 140 will be generated by new installations, and the remaining 28 will be replacements. Demand will be the highest in 2019 during the forecast period.